GM Strike - Will North American Automakers Be Unionized?

Before today's strike at 11 A.M. Eastern Standard Time, conventional wisdom was that General Motors (GM) and the United Auto Workers (UAW) would avoid one. How could that have been? The "Big Three" had been emitting warning signs about their financial health in a variety of ways over the last few years. This always seemed an ominous sign that the UAW would be pressured to accept significant concessions in this year's contract talks.

What many experts seem to have missed was the way the momentum has switched in the direction of the UAW over the last several months. For starters, Democrats won both houses of Congress last fall. Blue politicians have always been more supportive of labor issues than their red counterparts, but last year's winners, including Ohio's Sherrod Brown, have been unusually empathetic.

Politics are important in the area of labor relations, but the court of public opinion is at least equally so. After all, politicians work for the public. In a year that has seen one recall of foreign-made products after another, the public is understandably sympathetic to U.S. made--often union made--products. Couple this with concerns about illegal competition from immigrants, and it's easy to arrive at a position where Mr. John Q. and Ms. Juanita X. Public are fed up with the various pressures on the law abiding, hard-working member of the UAW. Are we there yet? The UAW will probably proceed as if we are.

This is by no means an ideal season for the UAW. Membership has been declining for decades, and the U.S. companies which employ union workers have never been weaker. In some ways though, that's the point. Toyota, Honda, Nissan, Kia and Volkswagen aren't unionized, but General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler are. This contract, which also applies to Ford and Chrysler, may be the first battle in a war over the future of North American automobile manufacturing. Will unions deliver benefits to North American autoworkers in the years to come or not? Look for the UAW to push for the answer now, while it's walking with the wind. For much of my lifetime, it's taken all of labor's energy to remain erect in the eye of the hurricane.